Tax reform legislation through the United States senate last week, in addition to November non-farm jobs number more than expected, gold, its biggest weekly drop in seven months.Gold seems to "curse" in December again: since 2013, the shape of the gold at the end of each year are very similar - low in December fell to a year.Market will usher in super week central bank this week, on Thursday (Beijing time) at the same time for the fed, the European central bank and the bank of England's interest rate decision, on the other hand, the United States will also be released inflation and retail sales data, which means that the precious metals market may appear "waves" this week.

In gold prices continue to slump, speculators with one and a half years since the biggest strength holdings of gold.The commodity futures trading commission (CFTC) issued a new report shows that in the week ended December 5, hedge funds and fund managers hold the COMEX gold futures sharply reduced net long positions 51088 hands, the biggest drop since May 24, 2016, the current net long total to 173329, the lowest level since August 9 this year.During that time, gold prices fell nearly $30.According to bloomberg, the fund managers have increased gold short positions by twice last week, this is the fastest increase since 2006 has a data record speed.

Bear is so rampant, gold this week I'm afraid there is no escape from fate.According to statistics, gold fell during the week of December policy-setting probability is great, shorting gold (Monday to open short positions, Friday's close positions) can be big probability to make a profit.Here for 10 years from 2007 to 2016 in December policy-setting the week the price changes.Visible, if interest rates in December for the week short gold, loss of 2 times for 10 years, 8 times earnings, drop probability is 80%;The largest loss of $13.06, the biggest profit of $112.33.

History trend, however, there is a bullish signal should not be ignored: the end of the year is also the stage the bottom of the gold market!In 2013, at the bottom of the gold appeared on December 30, 2014 in November 3, appear in the November 30, 2015, appears in the December 12, 2016.In these, after the birth of the bottom of the gold market will often broke out in the next year's first quarter.In 2013 and 2014 at the end of the bottom of the rebound after lasted for 10 weeks, and the year before last year and the rebound is continued for 16 weeks.

This year, the price will not repeat this move?Matrixtrade analyst Andrew McElory recently in Seeking Alpha comment, according to the first two years after the federal reserve to raise interest rates in December, the price of gold rose, so also should not be afraid of the central bank at this time.He said:“In 2015 and 2016, gold prices low in December is consistent with the federal reserve to raise interest rates.Keep selling before raising interest rates, combined with the mood excessively pessimistic, resulted in a major reversal.”

Andrew McElory think same situation will appear again, because gold is now trading at more than four months to the lowest level, relatively high fell more than 7% in September.$1250 to $1260 range, he argues, is a good entry point.History also underlines that gold, gold often broke out in January and February.Therefore, during the week short policy-setting gold may only be a good short-term strategy.In the policy-setting after the results were announced, the reaction of the market "buy sell the fact", may fix the price decline in the short run.